Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peacebuilding, refugee protection, and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to the movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of universities, research organisations, civil society, and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, and across Africa. The Situation Reports can be found here. To receive the situation report in your e-mail, click here. You can unsubscribe at any moment through the link at the bottom of each e-mail.
Situation in Sudan (per 9 January)
- The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) faced a setback at the start of the year when the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) ambushed them during an offensive in Blue Nile State, near the border with Sennar, resulting in heavy losses for the SAF and the RSF maintaining control over some key areas.
- RSF carried out attacks in White Nile State, causing displacement of at least 300 households, according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM).
- The situation in Sudan has become “a humanitarian crisis of staggering proportions”, said Edem Wosornu, UN OCHA Director, during the UN Security Council meeting on Sudan.
- UN officials confirmed that famine conditions are currently spread over 5 areas, including Zamzam, Al Salam, and Abu Shouk IDP camps, with several regions being fully cut off from aid delivery.
- Without urgent intervention, the situation could deteriorate further with five additional regions facing famine conditions by mid-2025, warned Integrated Food Security Phase Classification.
- Severe cash shortages and logistical challenges may potentially bring a disastrous harvest season, warned farmers in Sudan’s El Gedaref state. Farmers are not able to pay their workers as the banks introduced a withdrawal limit of maximum SDG 200,000 per day.
- Lack of liquidity in the country has been exacerbated since the Central Bank of Sudan introduced a new SDG 1,000 bank note, replacing the older version, adding to the market stagnation and price hikes.
Situation in Ethiopia (per 9 January)
- 52 districts in Tigray remain under the control of Eritrean military troops, stated the Deputy President of the Tigray Interim Administration, General Tsadkan Gebretensae, adding that Tigrayans in occupied areas face intimidation and attacks.
- Repatriation of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Tigray has stalled with the death toll rising among the vulnerable population. Almost 300 IDPs died in Shire’s Hintsad IDP center within the past three months, according to Wolay Berhe, the coordinator of the IDP center.
- Despite some aid efforts, many IDPs remain excluded from assistance. The ongoing political crisis, exacerbated by internal divisions within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), continues to obstruct effective governance and support for those in need.
- A series of earthquakes of up to 5.8 magnitude has struck central Ethiopia affecting the Afar and Oromia regions with 58,000 people being displaced from their homes.
- The earthquakes caused significant damage to homes and properties, including schools and factories, while no casualties nor major injuries have been recorded.
- Ethiopia has seen its fuel prices surpass 100 Birr per liter for the first time, with the price of gasoil now at 101.47 Birr following an 11.5% increase effective from Tuesday.
- This adjustment, part of a series of price hikes due to global fuel price volatility and macroeconomic reforms, reflects a significant rise in costs over the past three months.
- More than 9 million children are out of school across Ethiopia due to instability, conflict, or natural disasters with more than 6,000 schools closed and additional 10,000 damaged, according to UNICEF.
International Situation (per 9 January)
- The US has officially declared that the RSF and allied militias committed genocide during the ongoing civil war in Sudan, marking a significant escalation in the international response to the conflict.
- The US further imposed sanctions on the RSF leader, Mohammad Hamdan Daglo (Hemedti), “for his role in systematic atrocities committed against the Sudanese people” and “for his involvement in gross violations of human rights in Darfur”.
- Turkey has offered to mediate peace efforts in Sudan, focusing on negotiations between the SAF and the United Arab Emirates, rather than between the SAF and the RSF. The UAE, which has been previously accused of providing key support to the RSF, welcomed the mediation efforts by Turkey.
Regional Situation (per 9 January)
- South Sudan has announced the resumption of oil exports through Sudan after nearly a year of disruption caused by the ongoing war, with an initial production target of 90,000 barrels per day.
- The decision follows the lifting of force majeure by the Sudanese government, allowing oil companies to restart operations and transport oil via the main pipeline to Port Sudan. Observers fear that funds generated from the oil will be used for fueling war either in Sudan or South Sudan.
- The African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) has become an operational task force in Somalia replacing its predecessor African Union Transition Mission in Somalia, mandated with securing stability within the country and fighting against Al-Shabaab.
- Ethiopia and Somalia agreed to collaborate on strengthening the AUSSOM mission. These negotiations aim to support the reconciliation between the two countries brokered by Turkey last month.
Refugee and Migration Situation (per 9 January)
- Families of five Eritrean refugees detained in Ethiopia’s Amhara region reported they are being extorted for ransoms ranging from 100,000 to 500,000 Ethiopian Birr for their release, with no formal charges filed against the detainees.
- The mayor of Al-Kufra, Libya, Abdulrahman Agoub, has reported a worsening situation for over 100,000 refugees who crossed the border from Sudan. He criticized the UN mission for failing to provide support, highlighting the municipality’s limited resources to assist the growing number of refugees.
- UNHCR reported that the response in Libya has scaled up, however, more assistance is needed; especially food, water and relief goods like blankets, warm clothing, and reinforced shelter materials.
- The European Court of Human Rights has ruled that Greece illegally deported a Turkish woman, highlighting evidence of a systematic practice of “pushbacks” at its borders. The landmark ruling could affect the EU’s approach to migration policies.
- 75% of the migrant youth in Ethiopia and Sudan have experienced at least one type of abuse during their migration journey, shows a new report by Mixed Migration Centre, with those who used a smuggler being 1.8 times more likely to be more vulnerable to abuse.
Links of interest
SAF suffers setback in Blue Nile offensive
‘Famine conditions are spreading’ as Sudan’s crisis worsens: Security Council
OCHA: ‘$4.2 billion needed to support Sudan crisis’
Farmers in El Gedaref face harvest crisis amid Sudan cash shortage
መከላከያ ሠራዊት በትግራይ ክልል እንዲሰማራ ጠይቋል መባሉን ጊዜያዊ አስተዳደሩ አስተባበለ
Analysis: Death toll climbs in Tigray’s IDP centers amid aid shortages, political strife
Evacuations underway after 5.8 magnitude earthquake hits Ethiopia
Ethiopian Ministry of Trade and Regional Integration
UNICEF Ethiopia Humanitarian Situation Report No. 9, October – November 2024
Genocide Determination in Sudan and Imposing Accountability Measures
Türkiye offers to mediate Sudan conflict
South Sudan to resume oil exports via Sudan on Wednesday after nearly 1-year hiatus
Ethiopia, Somalia agree to strengthen cooperation on AUSSOM mission after high-level talks
Al-Kufra: Over 100.000 Sudanese refugees have come to the city
UNHCR scales up response to Sudanese refugees coming to Libya
ECtHR finds Greece’s border ‘pushbacks’ illegal in landmark ruling
A sharper lense on vulnerability: migrant youth in Sudan & Ethiopia A statistical analysis
Disclaimer: All information in this Situation Report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.